Measured categories held to settlement · 10-contract legs · taker fee
What a category means. Every category is four choices, and each row below spells out its own:
• side — which contract the bid is for: YES, or NO (the mirror, i.e. YES at the complement).
• entry price — the resting bid. 10 contracts at 15¢ costs
$1.59 all-in, so that bid has to win 15.9% of the time
just to break even; at 20¢ it costs $2.12 and needs 21.2%.
The fee is charged per contract and is not linear in price.
• entry window — how long the bid stays live before it is cancelled. A fill that lands after
that cut does not count as a fill: near the close the market converges to 0.00/1.00, so an unfilled bid
resting into the close is not quoted a real price, it is filled by the resolution itself.
• exit — hold to settlement (pays $10.00 for 10 contracts if right, nothing if wrong), or a
resting sell at a target. Take-profit exits are rejected elsewhere in this table.
Replay of the live fill rule against 699 KXBTC15M + 693 KXETH15M windows (2026-07-19 → 2026-09-23).
mult = payout / staked; n = legs; CI95 = cluster bootstrap resampling the 693 time windows
(BTC and ETH share a macro move, so legs are not independent observations); OOS = last 40% of the period only.
Only categories whose CI95 lower bound clears 1.0× are offered above.
Engine book — the four legs fwd.py actually rests
This is what the engine is doing, not what the categories recommend. Measured on the same corpus
it is the worst cell in the table above (0.9527×) because it fills whenever the market touches the bid — including
the terminal convergence print as the window resolves, which is a loss by construction.