Measured categories held to settlement · 10-contract legs · taker fee
What a category means. Every category is four choices, and each row below spells out its own:
• side — which contract the bid is for: YES, or NO (the mirror, i.e. YES at the complement).
• entry price — the resting bid. 10 contracts at 15¢ costs
$1.59 all-in, so that bid has to win 15.9% of the time
just to break even; at 20¢ it costs $2.12 and needs 21.2%.
The fee is charged per contract and is not linear in price.
• entry window — how long the bid stays live before it is cancelled. A fill that lands after
that cut does not count as a fill: near the close the market converges to 0.00/1.00, so an unfilled bid
resting into the close is not quoted a real price, it is filled by the resolution itself.
• exit — hold to settlement (pays $10.00 for 10 contracts if right, nothing if wrong), or a
resting sell at a target. Take-profit exits are rejected elsewhere in this table.
Replay of the live fill rule against 699 KXBTC15M + 693 KXETH15M windows (2026-07-19 → 2026-09-23).
mult = payout / staked; n = legs; CI95 = cluster bootstrap resampling the 693 time windows
(BTC and ETH share a macro move, so legs are not independent observations); OOS = last 40% of the period only.
Only categories whose CI95 lower bound clears 1.0× are offered above.
Engine book — the live orders fwd.py is resting
Since 2026-09-27 the engine trades the CHAMPION category itself: one YES bid per series at 15¢,
cancelled if it is unfilled 4 minutes into the window, held to settlement — so this card and the offered category
above are now the same rule, not two different things. Before that the engine rested four legs at 10¢ through the
whole window, which measured 0.9527× because a bid left live into the close is filled by the resolution itself.
A cancelled bid costs nothing and is recorded with cancelled + cancelled_min in the state.